Senegal faces key know-how selections in its seek for the optimal gas-to-power strategy

Senegal’s domestic gas reserves might be mainly used to provide electricity. Authorities anticipate that domestic gasoline infrastructure projects will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, offered there is no delay. The monetization of those vital power resources is on the basis of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide know-how group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth research that analyse the economic influence of the varied gas-to-power strategies available to Senegal. Two very different technologies are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very significant system cost differences between the 2 main gas-to-power applied sciences the country is at present contemplating. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are in fact significantly better suited than combined cycle gas generators to harness power from Senegal’s new fuel resources cost-effectively, the study reveals. Total cost differences between the 2 technologies might reach as much as 480 million USD till 2035 relying on situations.
Two competing and very different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art energy combine models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power eventualities to identify the price optimum way to ship new era capability for a selected country, shows that ICE and CCGT technologies current vital value variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally proven and reliable, they are very totally different by means of the profiles by which they’ll function. CCGT is a expertise that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, the place it may possibly perform at 90% load factor always. On the opposite hand, versatile ICE expertise can function efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to any other era technologies that may make up the country’s vitality mix.
In explicit our examine reveals that when operating in an electrical energy community of limited size similar to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to significantly increase the network capacity could be extraordinarily costly in all potential eventualities.
Cost variations between the technologies are explained by a number of elements. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impact the output of gasoline generators more than it does that of fuel engines.
Secondly, Deadline to Senegal’s anticipated access to low cost home gasoline, the operating prices turn out to be less impactful than the funding costs. In different phrases, as a end result of low gasoline prices lower operating costs, it is financially sound for the country to rely on ICE power crops, which are less expensive to construct.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key role. Senegal is predicted to require an extra 60-80 MW of era capacity annually to have the ability to meet the increasing demand. This is far decrease than the capacity of typical CCGTs plants which averages 300-400 MW that must be in-built one go, leading to pointless expenditure. Engine power plants, on the opposite hand, are modular, which implies they are often built precisely as and when the nation wants them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are vital. The mannequin reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation at the expense of ICE-gas, it’ll result in as much as 240 million dollars of extra value for the system by 2035. The cost distinction between the technologies may even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE expertise if Senegal additionally chooses to build new renewable vitality capability throughout the next decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The improvement of fuel infrastructure is a fancy and prolonged endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, causing gasoline provide disruptions that may have a huge monetary influence on the operation of CCGT crops.
Nigeria knows one thing about that. Only last 12 months, significant gasoline supply points have triggered shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest fuel turbine energy plants. Because Gas turbines function on a continuous combustion process, they require a continuing provide of gas and a steady dispatched load to generate consistent power output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting a fantastic pressure on the general system. ICE-Gas vegetation on the opposite hand, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they had been able to keep a much larger level of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the monetary impact of two years delay in the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to speculate into gasoline engines, the worth of gas delay could be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in further value.
Whichever way you take a look at it, new ICE-Gas technology capacity will decrease the total value of electrical energy in Senegal in all possible scenarios. If Senegal is to meet electrical energy demand development in a cost-optimal method, no less than 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capacity shall be required by 2026.
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